australia – ETIDIoH

The Interseasonal #Resurgence of #RSV in #Australian #Children Following the Reduction of #COVID19–Related #PublicHealth #Measures (Clin Infect Dis., summary)

[Source: Clinical Infectious Diseases, full page: (LINK). Summary, edited.]

The Interseasonal Resurgence of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Australian Children Following the Reduction of Coronavirus Disease 2019–Related Public Health Measures

David A Foley, Daniel K Yeoh, Cara A Minney-Smith, Andrew C Martin, Ariel O Mace, Chisha T Sikazwe, Huong Le, Avram Levy, Hannah C Moore, Christopher C Blyth

Clinical Infectious Diseases, ciaa1906, https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa1906

Published: 17 February 2021

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TO THE EDITOR—Yeoh et al reported the dramatic impact of public health measures introduced during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) detections in Western Australian (WA) children [1]. Here, we present data from ongoing local prospective surveillance. Following the end of winter, there has been a persistent absence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 community transmission and no increase in influenza detections. Limited physical distancing measures have remained in place, with largely no restrictions on gathering sizes and no mandate for wearing masks [2]. Schools have remained open. Strict quarantine for overseas arrivals has been maintained, with a persistent marked decrease in visitor numbers compared with previous numbers [3]. Border restrictions for travelers from other states within Australia have been reduced as of 14 November 2020, with quarantine not required for travelers from states with no community severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission [4].

(…)

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Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; RSV; Pediatrics; Australia.

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#Suppression of #SARS-CoV-2 after a second wave in #Victoria, #Australia (Clin Infect Dis., abstract)

[Source: Clinical Infectious Diseases, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

Suppression of SARS-CoV-2 after a second wave in Victoria, Australia

Michelle L Giles, PhD, Euan M Wallace, PhD, Charles Alpren, MPH, Nicole Brady, MPH, Simon Crouch, PhD, Finn Romanes, FAFPHM, Brett Sutton, FAFPHM, Allen Cheng, PhD

Clinical Infectious Diseases, ciaa1882, https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa1882

Published: 23 December 2020

Abstract

Countries around the world are experiencing a second wave of COVID-19 which is proving to be difficult to control. This report describes the combination of physical distancing, mandatory mask wearing, movement restrictions and enhanced test, trace and isolation efforts that can be used to successfully suppress community transmission to zero.

COVID, restrictions, pandemic

Issue Section: Brief Report

This content is only available as a PDF.

This article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model (https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model)

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Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; Quarantine Measures; Australia.

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#Preferences for a #COVID19 #vaccine in #Australia (Vaccine, abstract)

[Source: Vaccine, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

Vaccine | Available online 16 December 2020 | In Press, Journal Pre-proof

Preferences for a COVID-19 vaccine in Australia

Antonio Borriello, Daniel Master, Andrea Pellegrini, John M Rose, Centre for Business Intelligence and Data Analytics – Business School – University of Technology Sydney, 14/28 Ultimo Rd, Ultimo NSW 2007 (Australia)

Received 9 October 2020, Revised 7 December 2020, Accepted 10 December 2020, Available online 16 December 2020.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.12.032

Abstract

In absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, testing, contact tracing and social restrictions are among the most powerful strategies adopted around the world to slow down the spread of the pandemic. Citizens of most countries are suffering major physical, psychological and economic distress. At this stage, a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine is the most sustainable option to manage the current pandemic. However, vaccine hesitancy by even a small subset of the population can undermine the success of this strategy.

The objective of this research is to investigate the vaccine characteristics that matter the most to Australian citizens and to explore the potential uptake of a COVID-19 vaccine in Australia. Through a stated preference experiment, preferences towards a COVID-19 vaccine of 2,136 residents of the Australian states and territories were collected and analysed via a latent class model.

Results show that preferences for mild adverse cases, mode of administration, location of administration, price and effectiveness are heterogeneous. Conversely, preferences for immediacy and severe reactions are homogeneous, with respondents preferring a shorter period until vaccine availability and lower instances of severe side effects. The expected uptake of the vaccine is estimated under three different scenarios, with the value of 86% obtained for an average scenario. By calculating individual preferences, the willingness to pay is estimated for immediacy, effectiveness, mild and severe side effects.

Keywords: COVID-19 – Vaccine – Acceptance – Willingness to pay – Uptake

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Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; Vaccines; Society; Australia.

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#Priority #allocation of #pandemic #influenza #vaccines in #Australia – Recommendations of 3 community juries (Vaccine, abstract)

[Source: Vaccine, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

Vaccine | Available online 13 December 2020 | In Press, Corrected Proof

Priority allocation of pandemic influenza vaccines in Australia – Recommendations of 3 community juries

C. Degeling a, J. Williams b, S.M. Carter a, R. Moss c, P. Massey d,e, G.L. Gilbert b,f, P. Shih a, A. Braunack-Mayer a, K. Crooks d,g, D. Brown c,h, J. McVernon c,h

a Australian Centre for Health Engagement, Evidence and Values, School of Health & Society, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia; b Sydney Health Ethics, School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; c Modelling and Simulation Unit, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; d Hunter New England Local Health District, Population Health, Wallsend, New South Wales, Australia; e College of Medicine and Dentistry, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia; f Marie Bashir Institute for Emerging Infections, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; g Menzies School of Health Research, Charles Darwin University, Casuarina, Darwin, Australia; h Victorian Infectious Diseases Laboratory Epidemiology Unit at The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, The University of Melbourne and Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Australia

Received 20 August 2020, Revised 26 November 2020, Accepted 2 December 2020, Available online 13 December 2020.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.12.010

Abstract

Background

Pandemic planning has historically been oriented to respond to an influenza virus, with vaccination strategy being a key focus. As the current COVID-19 pandemic plays out, the Australian government is closely monitoring progress towards development of SARS-CoV2 vaccines as a definitive intervention. However, as in any pandemic, initial supply will likely be exceeded by demand due to limited manufacturing output.

Methods

We convened community juries in three Australian locations in 2019 to assess public acceptability and perceived legitimacy of influenza pandemic vaccination distribution strategies. Preparatory work included literature reviews on pandemic vaccine allocation strategies and on vaccine allocation ethics, and simulation modelling studies. We assumed vaccine would be provided to predefined priority groups. Jurors were then asked to recommend one of two strategies for distributing remaining early doses of vaccine: directly vaccinate people at higher risk of adverse outcomes from influenza; or indirectly protect the general population by vaccinating primary school students, who are most likely to spread infection.

Results

Thirty-four participants of diverse backgrounds and ages were recruited through random digit dialling and topic-blinded social media advertising. Juries heard evidence and arguments supporting different vaccine distribution strategies, and questioned expert presenters. All three community juries supported prioritising school children for influenza vaccination (aiming for indirect protection), one by 10–2 majority and two by consensus. Justifications included that indirect protection benefits more people and is likely to be more publicly acceptable.

Conclusions

In the context of an influenza pandemic, informed citizens were not opposed to prioritising groups at higher risks of adverse outcomes, but if resources and epidemiological conditions allow, achieving population benefits should be a strategic priority. These insights may inform future SARS-CoV-2 vaccination strategies.

Keywords: Pandemic Influenza vaccination – Health policy – Public deliberation – Public health ethics

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Keywords: COVID-19; Pandemic Preparedness; Vaccines; Bioethics; Australia.

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Where has all the #influenza gone? The #impact of #COVID19 on the circulation of influenza and other respiratory viruses, #Australia, March to September 2020 (Euro Surveill., abstract)

[Source: Eurosurveillance, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

Where has all the influenza gone? The impact of COVID-19 on the circulation of influenza and other respiratory viruses, Australia, March to September 2020

Sheena G Sullivan1 , Sandra Carlson2 , Allen C Cheng3,4 , Monique BN Chilver5 , Dominic E Dwyer6 , Melissa Irwin7 , Jen Kok6 , Kristine Macartney8,9 , Jennifer MacLachlan10 , Cara Minney-Smith11 , David Smith11,12 , Nigel Stocks5 , Janette Taylor6 , Ian G Barr13

Affiliations: 1 WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, Royal Melbourne Hospital, and Doherty Department, University of Melbourne, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia; 2 FluTracking, Hunter New England Population Health, Newcastle, Australia; 3 School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; 4 Department of Infectious Diseases, Alfred Health, and Central Clinical School, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; 5 Discipline of General Practice, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia; 6 Centre for Infectious Diseases and Microbiology Laboratory Services, New South Wales Health Pathology – Institute of Clinical Pathology and Medical Research, Westmead Hospital, Westmead, Australia; 7 Rapid Surveillance, Centre for Epidemiology and Evidence, NSW Ministry of Health, Sydney, Australia; 8 National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance and The Children’s Hospital Westmead, Sydney, Australia; 9 Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; 10 WHO Collaborating Centre for Viral Hepatitis, Royal Melbourne Hospital at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia; 11 PathWest Laboratory Medicine WA, Nedlands, Australia; 12 Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Western Australia, Nedlands, Australia; 13 WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, Royal Melbourne Hospital, and Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia

Correspondence: Sheena Sullivan

Citation style for this article: Sullivan Sheena G, Carlson Sandra, Cheng Allen C, Chilver Monique BN, Dwyer Dominic E, Irwin Melissa, Kok Jen, Macartney Kristine, MacLachlan Jennifer, Minney-Smith Cara, Smith David, Stocks Nigel, Taylor Janette, Barr Ian G. Where has all the influenza gone? The impact of COVID-19 on the circulation of influenza and other respiratory viruses, Australia, March to September 2020. Euro Surveill. 2020;25(47):pii=2001847. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.47.2001847

Received: 23 Oct 2020; Accepted: 26 Nov 2020

Abstract

The coronavirus disease pandemic was declared in March 2020, as the southern hemisphere’s winter approached. Australia expected co-circulation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, influenza and other seasonal respiratory viruses. However, influenza notifications were 7,029 (March–September) compared with an average 149,832 for the same period in 2015–2109, despite substantial testing. Restrictions on movement within and into Australia may have temporarily eliminated influenza. Other respiratory pathogens also showed remarkably changed activity in 2020.

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Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; Seasonal Influenza; Australia.

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Real-time #suicide #mortality data from #police reports in #Queensland, #Australia, during the #COVID19 pandemic: an interrupted time-series analysis (Lancet Psychiatry, abstract)

[Source: Lancet Psychiatry, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

Real-time suicide mortality data from police reports in Queensland, Australia, during the COVID-19 pandemic: an interrupted time-series analysis

Stuart Leske, PhD, Kairi Kõlves, PhD, Prof David Crompton, FRANZCP, Prof Ella Arensman, PhD, Prof Diego de Leo, PhD

Published: November 16, 2020 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2215-0366(20)30435-1

Summary

Background

Deaths by suicide can increase during infectious disease outbreaks. This study analysed suspected suicide rates in 2020 relative to 2015–19 to assess any early effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in Queensland, Australia.

Methods

We analysed data from the interim Queensland Suicide Register (iQSR), a state-wide real-time suicide surveillance system, using an interrupted time-series design. The data source for the iQSR is the Form 1 police report of a death to a coroner. Two QSR staff independently classed the probability of a death by suicide as possible, probable, or beyond reasonable doubt. The analysis included the probable or beyond reasonable doubt categories as suspected suicides. The primary outcome was the monthly suspected suicide rate. We applied Poisson and negative binomial regressions to assess whether Queensland’s Public Health Emergency Declaration on Jan 29, 2020, affected suspected suicides from Feb 1 to Aug 31, 2020. Secondary outcomes included absolute or relative changes in police-reported motives of recent unemployment, financial problems, domestic violence, and relationship breakdown.

Findings

3793 suspected suicides were recorded with an unadjusted monthly rate of 14·85 deaths per 100 000 people (from Jan 1, 2015, to Jan 1, 2020) before the declaration, and 443 suspected suicides were recorded with an unadjusted monthly rate of 14·07 deaths per 100 000 people (Feb 1, 2020, onwards) after the declaration. An interrupted time-series Poisson regression model unadjusted (rate ratio [RR] 0·94, 95% CI 0·82–1·06) and adjusted for overdispersion, seasonality, and pre-exposure trends (RR 1·02, 95% CI 0·83–1·25) indicated no evidence of a change in suspected suicide rates. We found no absolute or relative increases in the motives for suspected suicides, including recent unemployment, financial problems, relationship breakdown, or domestic violence from February to August, 2020, compared with the pre-exposure period.

Interpretation

There does not yet appear to be an overall change in the suspected suicide rate in the 7 months since Queensland declared a public health emergency. Despite this, COVID-19 has contributed to some suspected suicides in Queensland. Ongoing community spread and increasing death rates of COVID-19, and its impact on national economies and mental health, reinforces the need for governments to maintain the monitoring and reporting of suicide mortality in real time.

Funding

None.

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Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; Quarantine; Psychiatry; Australia.

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Modelling #transmission and #control of the #COVID19 pandemic in #Australia (Nat Commun., abstract)

[Source: Nature Communications, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

Modelling transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia

Sheryl L. Chang, Nathan Harding, Cameron Zachreson, Oliver M. Cliff & Mikhail Prokopenko

Nature Communications volume 11, Article number: 5710 (2020)

Abstract

There is a continuing debate on relative benefits of various mitigation and suppression strategies aimed to control the spread of COVID-19. Here we report the results of agent-based modelling using a fine-grained computational simulation of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in Australia. This model is calibrated to match key characteristics of COVID-19 transmission. An important calibration outcome is the age-dependent fraction of symptomatic cases, with this fraction for children found to be one-fifth of such fraction for adults. We apply the model to compare several intervention strategies, including restrictions on international air travel, case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing with varying levels of compliance, and school closures. School closures are not found to bring decisive benefits unless coupled with high level of social distancing compliance. We report several trade-offs, and an important transition across the levels of social distancing compliance, in the range between 70% and 80% levels, with compliance at the 90% level found to control the disease within 13–14 weeks, when coupled with effective case isolation and international travel restrictions.

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Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; Epidemiology; Australia.

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A dual #antigen #ELISA allows the assessment of #SARS-CoV-2 #antibody #seroprevalence in a low transmission setting (J Infect Dis., abstract)

[Source: Journal of Infectious Diseases, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

A dual antigen ELISA allows the assessment of SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence in a low transmission setting

Sarah M Hicks, Kai Pohl, Teresa Neeman, Hayley A McNamara, Kate M Parsons, Jin-shu He, Sidra A Ali, Samina Nazir, Louise C Rowntree, Thi H O Nguyen, Katherine Kedzierska, Denise L Doolan, Carola G Vinuesa, Matthew C Cook, Nicholas Coatsworth, Paul S Myles, Florian Kurth, Leif E Sander, Graham J Mann, Russell L Gruen, Amee J George, Elizabeth E Gardiner, Ian A Cockburn, the SARS-CoV-2 Testing in Elective Surgery Collaborators

The Journal of Infectious Diseases, jiaa623, https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiaa623

Published: 03 October 2020

Abstract

Estimates of seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies have been hampered by inadequate assay sensitivity and specificity. Using an ELISA-based approach that combines data about IgG responses to both the Nucleocapsid and Spike-receptor binding domain antigens, we show that excellent sensitivity and specificity can be achieved. We used this assay to assess the frequency of virus-specific antibodies in a cohort of elective surgery patients in Australia and estimated seroprevalence in Australia to be 0.28% (0 to 1.15%). These data confirm the low level of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia before July 2020 and validate the specificity of our assay.

SARS-CoV-2, COVID19, seroprevalence, ELISA, antibodies

Issue Section: Brief Report

This content is only available as a PDF.

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Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; Serology; Seroprevalence; Australia.

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#Modeling the #dynamics of the #COVID19 #population in #Australia: A probabilistic analysis (PLOS One, abstract)

[Source: PLOS One, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

OPEN ACCESS | PEER-REVIEWED | RESEARCH ARTICLE

Modeling the dynamics of the COVID-19 population in Australia: A probabilistic analysis

Ali Eshragh , Saed Alizamir, Peter Howley, Elizabeth Stojanovski

Published: October 2, 2020 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0240153

Abstract

The novel coronavirus COVID-19 arrived on Australian shores around 25 January 2020. This paper presents a novel method of dynamically modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia with a high degree of accuracy and in a timely manner using limited data; a valuable resource that can be used to guide government decision-making on societal restrictions on a daily and/or weekly basis. The “partially-observable stochastic process” used in this study predicts not only the future actual values with extremely low error, but also the percentage of unobserved COVID-19 cases in the population. The model can further assist policy makers to assess the effectiveness of several possible alternative scenarios in their decision-making processes.

Citation: Eshragh A, Alizamir S, Howley P, Stojanovski E (2020) Modeling the dynamics of the COVID-19 population in Australia: A probabilistic analysis. PLoS ONE 15(10): e0240153. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0240153

Editor: Dohyeong Kim, University of Texas at Dallas, UNITED STATES

Received: May 26, 2020; Accepted: September 21, 2020; Published: October 2, 2020

Copyright: © 2020 Eshragh et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Data Availability: All data used in this study are available on the WHO website: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/.

Funding: The authors received no specific funding for this work.

Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

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Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; Australia; Mathematical models.

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#Coronavirus Disease #Model to Inform #Transmission Reducing Measures and Health System Preparedness, #Australia (Emerg Infect Dis., abstract)

[Source: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

Volume 26, Number 12—December 2020 | Research

Coronavirus Disease Model to Inform Transmission Reducing Measures and Health System Preparedness, Australia

Robert Moss, James Wood, Damien Brown, Freya M. Shearer, Andrew J. Black, Kathryn Glass, Allen C. Cheng, James M. McCaw, and Jodie McVernon

Author affiliations: The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (R. Moss, F.M. Shearer, J.M. McCaw, J. McVernon); University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia (J. Wood); The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity at the University of Melbourne and Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne (D. Brown, J.M. McCaw, J. McVernon); University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia (A.J. Black); Australian National University, Canberra, New South Wales, Australia (K. Glass); Monash University, Melbourne (A.C. Cheng); Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, Melbourne (J. McVernon)

Abstract

The ability of health systems to cope with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases is of major concern. In preparation, we used clinical pathway models to estimate healthcare requirements for COVID-19 patients in the context of broader public health measures in Australia. An age- and risk-stratified transmission model of COVID-19 demonstrated that an unmitigated epidemic would dramatically exceed the capacity of the health system of Australia over a prolonged period. Case isolation and contact quarantine alone are insufficient to constrain healthcare needs within feasible levels of expansion of health sector capacity. Overlaid social restrictions must be applied over the course of the epidemic to ensure systems do not become overwhelmed and essential health sector functions, including care of COVID-19 patients, can be maintained. Attention to the full pathway of clinical care is needed, along with ongoing strengthening of capacity.

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Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; Australia.

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