#Urbanization affects peak timing, prevalence, and bimodality of #influenza #pandemics in #Australia: Results of a census-calibrated model (Sci Adv., abstract)

[Source: US National Library of Medicine, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

Sci Adv. 2018 Dec 12;4(12):eaau5294. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aau5294. eCollection 2018 Dec.

Urbanization affects peak timing, prevalence, and bimodality of influenza pandemics in Australia: Results of a census-calibrated model.

Zachreson C1, Fair KM1, Cliff OM1, Harding N1, Piraveenan M1, Prokopenko M1,2.

Author information: 1 Complex Systems Research Group, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and IT, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia. 2 Marie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity, The University of Sydney, Westmead, NSW 2145, Australia.

 

Abstract

We examine salient trends of influenza pandemics in Australia, a rapidly urbanizing nation. To do so, we implement state-of-the-art influenza transmission and progression models within a large-scale stochastic computer simulation, generated using comprehensive Australian census datasets from 2006, 2011, and 2016. Our results offer a simulation-based investigation of a population’s sensitivity to pandemics across multiple historical time points and highlight three notable trends in pandemic patterns over the years: increased peak prevalence, faster spreading rates, and decreasing spatiotemporal bimodality. We attribute these pandemic trends to increases in two key quantities indicative of urbanization: the population fraction residing in major cities and international air traffic. In addition, we identify features of the pandemic’s geographic spread that we attribute to changes in the commuter mobility network. The generic nature of our model and the ubiquity of urbanization trends around the world make it likely for our results to be applicable in other rapidly urbanizing nations.

PMID: 30547086 PMCID: PMC6291314 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aau5294

Keywords: Pandemic Influenza; Australia; Society; Mathematical models.

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#Socioeconomic #disparities associated with 29 common #infectious #diseases in #Sweden, 2005–14: an individually matched case-control study (Lancet Infect Dis., abstract)

[Source: The Lancet Infectious Diseases, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

Socioeconomic disparities associated with 29 common infectious diseases in Sweden, 2005–14: an individually matched case-control study

Alessandro Pini, MD, Magnus Stenbeck, PhD, Ilias Galanis, MSc, Henrik Kallberg, PhD, Kostas Danis, PhD, Anders Tegnell, MD, Anders Wallensten, MD

Published: December 14, 2018 / DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30485-7

 

Summary

Background

Although the association between low socioeconomic status and non-communicable diseases is well established, the effect of socioeconomic factors on many infectious diseases is less clear, particularly in high-income countries. We examined the associations between socioeconomic characteristics and 29 infections in Sweden.

Methods

We did an individually matched case-control study in Sweden. We defined a case as a person aged 18–65 years who was notified with one of 29 infections between 2005 and 2014, in Sweden. Cases were individually matched with respect to sex, age, and county of residence with five randomly selected controls. We extracted the data on the 29 infectious diseases from the electronic national register of notified infections and infectious diseases (SmiNet). We extracted information on country of birth, educational and employment status, and income of cases and controls from Statistics Sweden’s population registers. We calculated adjusted matched odds ratios (amOR) using conditional logistic regression to examine the association between infections or groups of infections and place of birth, education, employment, and income.

Findings

We included 173 729 cases notified between Jan 1, 2005, and Dec 31, 2014 and 868 645 controls. Patients with invasive bacterial diseases, blood-borne infectious diseases, tuberculosis, and antibiotic-resistant infections were more likely to be unemployed (amOR 1·59, 95% CI 1·49–1·70; amOR 3·62, 3·48–3·76; amOR 1·88, 1·65–2·14; and amOR 1·73, 1·67–1·79, respectively), to have a lower educational attainment (amOR 1·24, 1·15–1·34; amOR 3·63, 3·45–3·81; amOR 2·14, 1·85–2·47; and amOR 1·07, 1·03–1·12, respectively), and to have a lowest income (amOR 1·52, 1·39–1·66; amOR 3·64, 3·41–3·89; amOR 3·17, 2·49–4·04; and amOR 1·2, 1·14–1·25, respectively). By contrast, patients with food-borne and water-borne infections were less likely than controls to be unemployed (amOR 0·74, 95% CI 0·72–0·76), to have lower education (amOR 0·75, 0·73–0·77), and lowest income (amOR 0·59, 0·58–0·61).

Interpretation

These findings indicate persistent socioeconomic inequalities in infectious diseases in an egalitarian high-income country with universal health care. We recommend using these findings to identify priority interventions and as a baseline to monitor programmes addressing socioeconomic inequalities in health.

Funding

The Public Health Agency of Sweden.

Keywords: Society; Public Health; Sweden; Poverty.

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#Spanishflu in #Italy: new #data, new questions (Infez Med., abstract)

[Source: US National Library of Medicine, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

Infez Med. 2018 Mar 1;26(1):97-106.

Spanish flu in Italy: new data, new questions.

Fornasin A1, Breschi M2, Manfredini M3.

Author information: 1 Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Udine, Italy. 2 Department of Economics and Business, University of Sassari, Italy. 3 Department of Life Sciences, University of Parma, Italy.

 

Abstract

This paper proposes a new estimate for the number of victims of Spanish flu in Italy and highlights some aspects of mortality closely linked to the First World War. The sources used are official death statistics and the Albo d’oro, a roll of honor of the Italians fallen in the First World War. The new estimate of deaths from the flu is 410,000 for 1918, which should be raised to 466,000 when the numbers are taken up to 1920. Deaths from Spanish flu among the military were about 70,000. The time sequence of deaths recognizes two distinct peaks, one in October and one in November 1918. Between these two peaks, the lowest number of deaths falls in the week of the armistice between Italy and Austria-Hungary (signed 4 November 1918). This suggests links between Spanish flu and WWI that cannot be merely explained in terms of movement of people and contagion.

PMID: 29525806[Indexed for MEDLINE] Free full text

Keywords: Pandemic Influenza; Spanish Flu; H1N1; Italy; Society; Wars.

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#Natality #Decline and Spatial #Variation in Excess #Death Rates During the 1918-1920 #Influenza #Pandemic in #Arizona, #USA (Am J Epidemiol., abstract)

[Source: US National Library of Medicine, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

Am J Epidemiol. 2018 Dec 1;187(12):2577-2584. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwy146.

Natality Decline and Spatial Variation in Excess Death Rates During the 1918-1920 Influenza Pandemic in Arizona, United States.

Dahal S1, Mizumoto K1,2, Bolin B3, Viboud C, Chowell G1,4.

Author information: 1 Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia. 2 Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Hokkaido, Japan. 3 School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona. 4 Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland.

 

Abstract

A large body of epidemiologic research has concentrated on the 1918 influenza pandemic, but more work is needed to understand spatial variation in pandemic mortality and its effects on natality. We collected and analyzed 35,151 death records from Arizona for 1915-1921 and 21,334 birth records from Maricopa county for 1915-1925. We estimated the number of excess deaths and births before, during, and after the pandemic period, and we found a significant decline in the number of births occurring 9-11 months after peak pandemic mortality. Moreover, excess mortality rates were highest in northern Arizona counties, where Native Americans were historically concentrated, suggesting a link between ethnic and/or sociodemographic factors and risk of pandemic-related death. The relationship between birth patterns and pandemic mortality risk should be further studied at different spatial scales and in different ethnic groups.

PMID: 30508194 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwy146

Keywords: Pandemic Influenza; H1N1; Spanish Flu; Society; USA; Arizona.

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1818, 1918, 2018: Two #Centuries of #Pandemics (Health Secur., abstract)

[Source: US National Library of Medicine, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

Health Secur. 2018 Dec 4. doi: 10.1089/hs.2018.0083. [Epub ahead of print]

1818, 1918, 2018: Two Centuries of Pandemics.

Snyder MR1,2, Ravi SJ1,2.

Author information: 1 Michael R. Snyder, MALD, is an Analyst, and Sanjana J. Ravi, MPH, is a Senior Analyst, both at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. 2 Both are Research Associates at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland.

 

Abstract

2018 marks the centennial of the 1918 influenza pandemic, widely acknowledged as one of the deadliest infectious disease crises in human history. As public health and medical communities of practice reflect on the aftermath of the influenza pandemic and the ways in which it has altered the trajectory of history and informed current practices in health security, it is worth noting that the Spanish flu was preceded by a very different 100-year threat: the first Asiatic cholera pandemic of 1817 to 1824. In this commentary, we offer a historical analysis of the common socioeconomic, political, and environmental factors underlying both pandemics, consider the roles of cholera and Spanish flu in shaping global health norms and modern public health practices, and examine how strategic applications of soft power and broadening the focus of health security to include sustainable development could help the world prepare for pandemics of the future.

PMID: 30511884 DOI: 10.1089/hs.2018.0083

Keywords: Pandemics; Pandemic preparedness; Influenza A; Cholera; Society.

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#Health #impacts of #parental #migration on left-behind #children and adolescents: a systematic review and meta-analysis (Lancet, abstract)

[Source: The Lancet, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

Health impacts of parental migration on left-behind children and adolescents: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Gracia Fellmeth, MSc †, Kelly Rose-Clarke, MBPhD †, Chenyue Zhao, PhD, Laura K Busert, MSc, Yunting Zheng, MSc, Alessandro Massazza, MSc, Hacer Sonmez, BSc, Ben Eder, MBChB, Alice Blewitt, MSc, Wachiraya Lertgrai, MSc, Miriam Orcutt, MBBS, Katharina Ricci, BA Hons, Olaa Mohamed-Ahmed, MSc, Rachel Burns, MSc, Duleeka Knipe, PhD, Sally Hargreaves, FRCPE, Prof Therese Hesketh, PhD, Charles Opondo, PhD, Delan Devakumar, PhD

Open Access / Published: December 05, 2018 / DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32558-3

 

Summary

Background

Globally, a growing number of children and adolescents are left behind when parents migrate. We investigated the effect of parental migration on the health of left behind-children and adolescents in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Methods

For this systematic review and meta-analysis we searched MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, the Cochrane Library, Web of Science, PsychINFO, Global Index Medicus, Scopus, and Popline from inception to April 27, 2017, without language restrictions, for observational studies investigating the effects of parental migration on nutrition, mental health, unintentional injuries, infectious disease, substance use, unprotected sex, early pregnancy, and abuse in left-behind children (aged 0–19 years) in LMICs. We excluded studies in which less than 50% of participants were aged 0–19 years, the mean or median age of participants was more than 19 years, fewer than 50% of parents had migrated for more than 6 months, or the mean or median duration of migration was less than 6 months. We screened studies using systematic review software and extracted summary estimates from published reports independently. The main outcomes were risk and prevalence of health outcomes, including nutrition (stunting, wasting, underweight, overweight and obesity, low birthweight, and anaemia), mental health (depressive disorder, anxiety disorder, conduct disorders, self-harm, and suicide), unintentional injuries, substance use, abuse, and infectious disease. We calculated pooled risk ratios (RRs) and standardised mean differences (SMDs) using random-effects models. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42017064871.

Findings

Our search identified 10 284 records, of which 111 studies were included for analysis, including a total of 264 967 children (n=106 167 left-behind children and adolescents; n=158 800 children and adolescents of non-migrant parents). 91 studies were done in China and focused on effects of internal labour migration. Compared with children of non-migrants, left-behind children had increased risk of depression and higher depression scores (RR 1·52 [95% CI 1·27–1·82]; SMD 0·16 [0·10–0·21]), anxiety (RR 1·85 [1·36–2·53]; SMD 0·18 [0·11–0·26]), suicidal ideation (RR 1·70 [1·28–2·26]), conduct disorder (SMD 0·16 [0·04–0·28]), substance use (RR 1·24 [1·00–1·52]), wasting (RR 1·13 [1·02–1·24]) and stunting (RR 1·12 [1·00–1·26]). No differences were identified between left-behind children and children of non-migrants for other nutrition outcomes, unintentional injury, abuse, or diarrhoea. No studies reported outcomes for other infectious diseases, self-harm, unprotected sex, or early pregnancy. Study quality varied across the included studies, with 43% of studies at high or unclear risk of bias across five or more domains.

Interpretation

Parental migration is detrimental to the health of left-behind children and adolescents, with no evidence of any benefit. Policy makers and health-care professionals need to take action to improve the health of these young people.

Funding

Wellcome Trust.

Keywords: Migrants; Society; Public Health.

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The #UCL – #Lancet #Commission on #Migration and #Health: the health of a world on the move (Lancet, abstract)

[Source: The Lancet, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

The UCL–Lancet Commission on Migration and Health: the health of a world on the move

Prof Ibrahim Abubakar, FRCP  *, Robert W Aldridge, PhD *, Delan Devakumar, PhD *, Miriam Orcutt, MSc *, Rachel Burns, MSc, Prof Mauricio L Barreto, MD, Poonam Dhavan, MPH, Fouad M Fouad, MD, Prof Nora Groce, PhD, Prof Yan Guo, PhD, Sally Hargreaves, FRCPE, Michael Knipper, MD, Prof J Jaime Miranda, MD, Prof Nyovani Madise, PhD, Prof Bernadette Kumar, DrPhilos, Davide Mosca, MD †, Prof Terry McGovern, JD, Leonard Rubenstein, LLM, Prof Peter Sammonds, PhD, Prof Susan M Sawyer, MD, Kabir Sheikh, PhD, Prof Stephen Tollman, PhD, Prof Paul Spiegel, MD, Prof Cathy Zimmerman, PhD * on behalf of theUCL–Lancet Commission on Migration and Health ‡

Published: December 05, 2018 / DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32114-7

 

Abstract

With one billion people on the move or having moved in 2018, migration is a global reality, which has also become a political lightning rod. Although estimates indicate that the majority of global migration occurs within low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), the most prominent dialogue focuses almost exclusively on migration from LMICs to high-income countries (HICs). Nowadays, populist discourse demonises the very same individuals who uphold economies, bolster social services, and contribute to health services in both origin and destination locations. Those in positions of political and economic power continue to restrict or publicly condemn migration to promote their own interests. Meanwhile nationalist movements assert so-called cultural sovereignty by delineating an us versus them rhetoric, creating a moral emergency.

Keywords: Migrants; Society; Public Health.

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