[Source: Journal of Travel Medicine, full page: (LINK). Summary, edited.]
Potential for global spread of a novel coronavirus from China
Authors: Isaac I. Bogoch, MD1,2 Alexander Watts, PhD3,4 Andrea Thomas-Bachli, PhD3,4
Carmen Huber, MSA3,4 Moritz U.G. Kraemer, DPhil5,6 Kamran Khan, MD, MPH1,3,4
Affiliations: 1. Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; 2. Divisions of General Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, University Health
Network, Toronto, Canada; 3. Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital, Toronto, Canada; 4. BlueDot, Toronto, Canada; 5. Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; 6. Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
*Correspondence: Isaac I. Bogoch, Divisions of General Internal Medicine and Infectious
Diseases, Toronto General Hospital, 14EN 209, 200 Elizabeth Street, Toronto, ON, Canada M5G 2C4. E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org; Kamran Khan, St. Michael’s Hospital, 30 Bond Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M5B 1W8. Email: email@example.com.
Keywords: SARS; Travel; Coronavirus; Pneumonia; Outbreak; Zoonosis; Wuhan
Highlight: An epidemic of a novel coronavirus emerged from Wuhan, China, in late December 2019 and has since spread to several large Chinese cities. Should a scenario arise where this coronavirus spreads more broadly across China, we evaluate how patterns of international disease transmission could change.
Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/jtm/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/jtm/taaa011/5716260 by guest on 28 January 2020
A novel coronavirus emerging from Wuhan, China in late December 2019 is currently spreading to other provinces in mainland China and international destinations across East Asia. At the time of writing, cases have been confirmed in Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Macau, and multiple cities in Guangdong province, with more than 500 cases confirmed across China.1 Furthermore, several cases have spread internationally via air travel2 to Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and the United States. A recent modelling study concluded that for these international exportations to be observed, the outbreak in China should be substantially larger than is reflected by confirmed case counts.3 Currently, many public health interventions are based on scenarios where Wuhan is the primary source of new cases.4 While there are currently no documented
transmission chains outside of the Wuhan region, should a scenario arise where this novel coronavirus spreads more broadly to and within other Chinese cities, we evaluated how global patterns of disease dispersion might change.
Keywords: 2019-nCoV; Travel medicine; China.