[Source: Science Advances, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]
Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe
Owen B. Toon1,*, Charles G. Bardeen2, Alan Robock3, Lili Xia3, Hans Kristensen4, Matthew McKinzie5, R. J. Peterson6, Cheryl S. Harrison7,8, Nicole S. Lovenduski9 and Richard P. Turco10
1 Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303, USA. 2 Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA. 3 Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA. 4 Federation of American Scientists, 1112 16th St., N.W. Suite 400, Washington, DC 20036, USA. 5 Natural Resources Defense Council, 40 West 20th St., 11th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA.6 Department of Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0390, USA. 7 School of Earth, Environmental, and Marine Sciences, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Port Isabel, TX 78597, USA. 8 Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0450, USA. 9 Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0450, USA. 10 Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA.
*Corresponding author. Email: firstname.lastname@example.org
Science Advances 02 Oct 2019: Vol. 5, no. 10, eaay5478 / DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aay5478
Pakistan and India may have 400 to 500 nuclear weapons by 2025 with yields from tested 12- to 45-kt values to a few hundred kilotons. If India uses 100 strategic weapons to attack urban centers and Pakistan uses 150, fatalities could reach 50 to 125 million people, and nuclear-ignited fires could release 16 to 36 Tg of black carbon in smoke, depending on yield. The smoke will rise into the upper troposphere, be self-lofted into the stratosphere, and spread globally within weeks. Surface sunlight will decline by 20 to 35%, cooling the global surface by 2° to 5°C and reducing precipitation by 15 to 30%, with larger regional impacts. Recovery takes more than 10 years. Net primary productivity declines 15 to 30% on land and 5 to 15% in oceans threatening mass starvation and additional worldwide collateral fatalities.
Keywords: Environmental disasters; Environmental Pollution; Wars; Radiations; WMD.