[Source: US National Library of Medicine, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]
Glob Health Action. 2016 May 17;9:31669. doi: 10.3402/gha.v9.31669. eCollection 2016.
Estimated Zika virus importations to Europe by travellers from Brazil.
Massad E1,2, Tan SH3, Khan K4, Wilder-Smith A5,6,7.
Author information: 1Department of Medicine, University of Sao Paolo, Sao Paolo, Brazil. 2London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. 3School of Computer Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. 4Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael’s Hospital, Toronto, Canada. 5Institute of Public Health, University of Heidelberg, Germany. 6Department Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, SE-901 85 Umeå, Sweden. 7Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore; email@example.com.
Given the interconnectivity of Brazil with the rest of the world, Zika virus (ZIKV) infections have the potential to spread rapidly around the world via viremic travellers. The extent of spread depends on the travel volume and the endemicity in the exporting country. In the absence of reliable surveillance data, we did mathematical modelling to estimate the number of importations of ZIKV from Brazil into Europe.
We applied a previously developed mathematical model on importations of dengue to estimate the number of ZIKV importations into Europe, based on the travel volume, the probability of being infected at the time of travel, the population size of Brazil, and the estimated incidence of ZIKV infections.
Our model estimated between 508 and 1,778 imported infections into Europe in 2016, of which we would expect between 116 and 355 symptomatic Zika infections; with the highest number of importations being into France, Portugal and Italy.
Our model identified high-risk countries in Europe. Such data can assist policymakers and public health professionals in estimating the extent of importations in order to prepare for the scale up of laboratory diagnostic assays and estimate the occurrence of Guillain-Barré Syndrome, potential sexual transmission, and infants with congenital ZIKV syndrome.
KEYWORDS: Brazil; Europe; Zika virus; importations; travel
PMID: 27193266 [PubMed – in process]
Keywords: Research; Abstracts; Zika Virus; European Region.