On the Emergence of #Candida auris: #ClimateChange, #Azoles, #Swamps, and #Birds (mBio, abstract)

[Source: MBio, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

On the Emergence of Candida auris: Climate Change, Azoles, Swamps, and Birds

Arturo Casadevall, Dimitrios P. Kontoyiannis, Vincent Robert

James W. Kronstad, Editor

DOI: 10.1128/mBio.01397-19

 

ABSTRACT

The most enigmatic aspect of the rise of Candida auris as a human pathogen is that it emerged simultaneously on three continents, with each clade being genetically distinct. Although new pathogenic fungal species are described regularly, these are mostly species associated with single cases in individuals who are immunosuppressed. In this study, we used phylogenetic analysis to compare the temperature susceptibility of C. auris with those of its close relatives and to use these results to argue that it may be the first example of a new fungal disease emerging from climate change, with the caveat that many other factors may have contributed.

Keywords: Candida Auris; Climate change.

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A 40-y record reveals gradual #Antarctic #sea #ice increases followed by decreases at rates far exceeding the rates seen in the #Arctic (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, abstract)

[Source: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

A 40-y record reveals gradual Antarctic sea ice increases followed by decreases at rates far exceeding the rates seen in the Arctic

Claire L. Parkinson

PNAS first published July 1, 2019 / DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1906556116

Contributed by Claire L. Parkinson, May 24, 2019 (sent for review April 16, 2019; reviewed by Will Hobbs and Douglas G. Martinson)

 

Significance

A newly completed 40-y record of satellite observations is used to quantify changes in Antarctic sea ice coverage since the late 1970s. Sea ice spreads over vast areas and has major impacts on the rest of the climate system, reflecting solar radiation and restricting ocean/atmosphere exchanges. The satellite record reveals that a gradual, decades-long overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extents reversed in 2014, with subsequent rates of decrease in 2014–2017 far exceeding the more widely publicized decay rates experienced in the Arctic. The rapid decreases reduced the Antarctic sea ice extents to their lowest values in the 40-y record, both on a yearly average basis (record low in 2017) and on a monthly basis (record low in February 2017).

 

Abstract

Following over 3 decades of gradual but uneven increases in sea ice coverage, the yearly average Antarctic sea ice extents reached a record high of 12.8 × 106 km2 in 2014, followed by a decline so precipitous that they reached their lowest value in the 40-y 1979–2018 satellite multichannel passive-microwave record, 10.7 × 106 km2, in 2017. In contrast, it took the Arctic sea ice cover a full 3 decades to register a loss that great in yearly average ice extents. Still, when considering the 40-y record as a whole, the Antarctic sea ice continues to have a positive overall trend in yearly average ice extents, although at 11,300 ± 5,300 km2⋅y−1, this trend is only 50% of the trend for 1979–2014, before the precipitous decline. Four of the 5 sectors into which the Antarctic sea ice cover is divided all also have 40-y positive trends that are well reduced from their 2014–2017 values. The one anomalous sector in this regard, the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas, has a 40-y negative trend, with the yearly average ice extents decreasing overall in the first 3 decades, reaching a minimum in 2007, and exhibiting an overall upward trend since 2007 (i.e., reflecting a reversal in the opposite direction from the other 4 sectors and the Antarctic sea ice cover as a whole).

sea ice – climate change – satellite Earth observations – climate trends – Antarctic sea ice

Keywords: Climate change; Global Warming; Antarctica.

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Direct observation of #permafrost #degradation and rapid #soil #carbon loss in #tundra (Nat Geosci., abstract)

[Source: Nature Geoscience, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

Article | Published: 01 July 2019

Direct observation of permafrost degradation and rapid soil carbon loss in tundra

César Plaza, Elaine Pegoraro, Rosvel Bracho, Gerardo Celis, Kathryn G. Crummer, Jack A. Hutchings, Caitlin E. Hicks Pries, Marguerite Mauritz, Susan M. Natali, Verity G. Salmon, Christina Schädel, Elizabeth E. Webb & Edward A. G. Schuur

Nature Geoscience (2019)

 

Abstract

Evidence suggests that 5–15% of the vast pool of soil carbon stored in northern permafrost ecosystems could be emitted as greenhouse gases by 2100 under the current path of global warming. However, direct measurements of changes in soil carbon remain scarce, largely because ground subsidence that occurs as the permafrost soils begin to thaw confounds the traditional quantification of carbon pools based on fixed depths or soil horizons. This issue is overcome when carbon is quantified in relation to a fixed ash content, which uses the relatively stable mineral component of soil as a metric for pool comparisons through time. We applied this approach to directly measure soil carbon pool changes over five years in experimentally warmed and ambient tundra ecosystems at a site in Alaska where permafrost is degrading due to climate change. We show a loss of soil carbon of 5.4% per year (95% confidence interval: 1.0, 9.5) across the site. Our results point to lateral hydrological export as a potential pathway for these surprisingly large losses. This research highlights the potential to make repeat soil carbon pool measurements at sentinel sites across the permafrost region, as this feedback to climate change may be occurring faster than previously thought.

Keywords: Climate change; Global warming; Permafrost.

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The #effect of #global #change on #mosquito-borne #disease (Lancet Infect Dis., abstract)

[Source: The Lancet Infectious Diseases, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

The effect of global change on mosquito-borne disease

Lydia H V Franklinos, MSc, Prof Kate E Jones, PhD, David W Redding, PhD, Prof Ibrahim Abubakar, PhD

Published: June 18, 2019 / DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(19)30161-6

 

Summary

More than 80% of the global population is at risk of a vector-borne disease, with mosquito-borne diseases being the largest contributor to human vector-borne disease burden. Although many global processes, such as land-use and socioeconomic change, are thought to affect mosquito-borne disease dynamics, research to date has strongly focused on the role of climate change. Here, we show, through a review of contemporary modelling studies, that no consensus on how future changes in climatic conditions will impact mosquito-borne diseases exists, possibly due to interacting effects of other global change processes, which are often excluded from analyses. We conclude that research should not focus solely on the role of climate change but instead consider growing evidence for additional factors that modulate disease risk. Furthermore, future research should adopt new technologies, including developments in remote sensing and system dynamics modelling techniques, to enable a better understanding and mitigation of mosquito-borne diseases in a changing world.

Keywords: Arbovirus; Mosquitoes; Emerging Diseases; Climate Change.

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#Global ensemble #projections reveal trophic amplification of #ocean #biomass #declines with climate change (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, abstract)

[Source: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change

Heike K. Lotze, Derek P. Tittensor, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Tyler D. Eddy, William W. L. Cheung, Eric D. Galbraith, Manuel Barange, Nicolas Barrier, Daniele Bianchi, Julia L. Blanchard, Laurent Bopp, Matthias Büchner, Catherine M. Bulman, David A. Carozza, Villy Christensen, Marta Coll, John P. Dunne, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Simon Jennings, Miranda C. Jones, Steve Mackinson, Olivier Maury, Susa Niiranen, Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos, Tilla Roy, José A. Fernandes, Jacob Schewe, Yunne-Jai Shin, Tiago A. M. Silva, Jeroen Steenbeek, Charles A. Stock, Philippe Verley, Jan Volkholz, Nicola D. Walker, and Boris Worm

PNAS first published June 11, 2019 / DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900194116

Edited by James A. Estes, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, and approved May 22, 2019 (received for review January 5, 2019)

 

Significance

Climate change can affect the distribution and abundance of marine life, with consequences for goods and services provided to people. Because different models can lead to divergent conclusions about marine futures, we present an integrated global ocean assessment of climate change impacts using an ensemble of multiple climate and ecosystem models. It reveals that global marine animal biomass will decline under all emission scenarios, driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production. Notably, climate change impacts are amplified at higher food web levels compared with phytoplankton. Our ensemble projections provide the most comprehensive outlook on potential climate-driven ecological changes in the global ocean to date and can inform adaptive management and conservation of marine resources under climate change.

 

Abstract

While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.

climate change impacts – marine food webs – global ecosystem modeling – model intercomparison – uncertainty

Keywords: Worldwide; Climate change; Biodiversity.

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#Economics of the #disintegration of the #Greenland #ice sheet (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, abstract)

[Source: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

Economics of the disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet

William Nordhaus

PNAS first published June 4, 2019 / DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1814990116

Edited by William C. Clark, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, and approved April 5, 2019 (received for review August 30, 2018)

 

Significance

This study integrates an economic model of climate change with a small structural model of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS). As such, it provides a methodology for incorporating large earth system changes into standard economic cost–benefit or damage-limiting analyses. It finds that adding the GIS has only a small effect on the social cost of carbon (SCC) because melting is slow and damages are far in the future.

 

Abstract

Concerns about the impact on large-scale earth systems have taken center stage in the scientific and economic analysis of climate change. The present study analyzes the economic impact of a potential disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS). The study introduces an approach that combines long-run economic growth models, climate models, and reduced-form GIS models. The study demonstrates that social cost–benefit analysis and damage-limiting strategies can be usefully extended to illuminate issues with major long-term consequences, as well as concerns such as potential tipping points, irreversibility, and hysteresis. A key finding is that, under a wide range of assumptions, the risk of GIS disintegration makes a small contribution to the optimal stringency of current policy or to the overall social cost of climate change. It finds that the cost of GIS disintegration adds less than 5% to the social cost of carbon (SCC) under alternative discount rates and estimates of the GIS dynamics.

climate change – Greenland ice sheet – economics – DICE model – optimization

Keywords: Climate change; Global warming; Greenland; Economics.

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On #lifestyle trends, #health and #mosquitoes: Formulating welfare levels for control of the Asian tiger mosquito in #Greece (PLoS Negl Trop Dis., abstract)

[Source: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

OPEN ACCESS /  PEER-REVIEWED / RESEARCH ARTICLE

On lifestyle trends, health and mosquitoes: Formulating welfare levels for control of the Asian tiger mosquito in Greece

Antonios Kolimenakis , Kostas Bithas, Dionysis Latinopoulos, Clive Richardson

Published: June 4, 2019 / DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007467 / This is an uncorrected proof.

 

Abstract

The expansion of urban ecosystems and climate change, both outcomes of massive lifestyle changes, contribute to a series of side effects such as environmental deterioration, spread of diseases, increased greenhouse gas emissions and introduction of invasive species. In the case of the Athens metropolitan area, an invasive mosquito species—the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus)–has spread widely in the last decade. This spread is favoured within urban environments and is also affected by changing climatic trends. The Asian tiger mosquito is accompanied by risks of mosquito-borne diseases, greater nuisance levels, and increased expenses incurring for its confrontation. The main aims of this paper are (i) to estimate the various costs associated with their control of this invasive species, as well as its health and nuisance impacts, (ii) to evaluate the level of citizens’ well-being from averting these impacts and (iii) to record citizens’ and experts’ perceptions regarding alternative control measures. Evidence shows that experts tend to place a high value on mosquito control when associated with serious health risks, while citizens are more sensitive and concerned about the environmental impacts of control methods. The synthesis of results produced by the current study could act as a preliminary guide for the estimation of societal welfare from the confrontation of similar problems in the context of a complex ecosystem.

 

Author summary

This paper is based on several years’ collaboration among researchers from various disciplines, key health policy makers and stakeholders in an attempt to evaluate the economic dimensions related to the presence of the Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus) and the challenges of tackling mosquito-borne disease outbreaks in Greece and Southern Europe. Similar studies have been conducted and continue to be published in Europe and the USA examining the socioeconomic benefit from the implementation of relevant control and prevention strategies. These studies conclude that there are significant benefits related both to the reduction of nuisance levels and the reduction of the health risks posed by various mosquito species. In our case, the application of an updated economic analysis on the effectiveness of relevant public control and prevention programs provides essential information for public health decision-making, bearing in mind the significant restructuring of the public sector and the fiscal crisis apparent in the European South.

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Citation: Kolimenakis A, Bithas K, Latinopoulos D, Richardson C (2019) On lifestyle trends, health and mosquitoes: Formulating welfare levels for control of the Asian tiger mosquito in Greece. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 13(6): e0007467. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007467

Editor: Olaf Horstick, University of Heidelberg, GERMANY

Received: October 2, 2018; Accepted: May 14, 2019; Published: June 4, 2019

Copyright: © 2019 Kolimenakis et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Data Availability: All relevant data are within the manuscript and its Supporting Information files.

Funding: Part of this research has been co-financed by the European Union (EU Environmental Funding Programme LIFE+ Environment Policy and Governance) and Greek national funds through the LIFE CONOPS project “Development & demonstration of management plans against—the climate change enhanced—invasive mosquitoes in S. Europe” (LIFE12ENV/GR/000466). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Keywords: Climate change; Mosquitoes; Aedes albopictus; Society; Poverty; Greece.

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