[Source: PLOS One, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]
OPEN ACCESS | PEER-REVIEWED | RESEARCH ARTICLE
Course of the first month of the COVID 19 outbreak in the New York State counties
Anca Rǎdulescu
Published: September 2, 2020 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0238560
Abstract
We illustrate and study the evolution of reported infections over the month of March in New York State as a whole, as well as in each individual county in the state. We identify piecewise exponential trends, and search for correlations between the timing and dynamics of these trends and statewide mandated measures on testing and social distancing. We conclude that the reports on April 1 may be dramatically under-representing the actual number of statewide infections, an idea which is supported by more recent retroactive estimates based on serological studies. A follow-up study is underway, reassessing data until June 1, using additional measures for validation and monitoring for effects of the PAUSE directive, and of the reopening timeline.
Citation: Rǎdulescu A (2020) Course of the first month of the COVID 19 outbreak in the New York State counties. PLoS ONE 15(9): e0238560. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0238560
Editor: Jeffrey Shaman, Columbia University, UNITED STATES
Received: April 8, 2020; Accepted: August 19, 2020; Published: September 2, 2020
Copyright: © 2020 Anca Rǎdulescu. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Data Availability: The manuscript is based on data available in the public domain, within the following archives (accessed April 6th): https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_daily_reports https://www.health.ny.gov/statistics/vital_statistics/2010/table02.htm https://covidtracking.com/data/state/new-york#historical.
Funding: This author’s research is funded by a Simons Foundation Collaboration Grant for Mathematicians. The funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; Epidemiology; Mathematical Models; USA; NY State.
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