[Source: The Lancet, full page: (LINK). Summary, edited.]
How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?
Roy M Anderson, Hans Heesterbeek, Don Klinkenberg, T Déirdre Hollingsworth
Published: March 09, 2020 / DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30567-5
Governments will not be able to minimise both deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the economic impact of viral spread. Keeping mortality as low as possible will be the highest priority for individuals; hence governments must put in place measures to ameliorate the inevitable economic downturn. In our view, COVID-19 has developed into a pandemic, with small chains of transmission in many countries and large chains resulting in extensive spread in a few countries, such as Italy, Iran, South Korea, and Japan. 1 Most countries are likely to have spread of COVID-19, at least in the early stages, before any mitigation measures have an impact.
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-COV-2.