#Correlation #Analysis of the #Population #Emigration Rate in #Wuhan and the #Trend of Novel  #Pneumonia in #Hubei Province (SSRN, abstract)

[Source: SSRN, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

Correlation Analysis of the Population Emigration Rate in Wuhan and the Trend of Novel  Pneumonia in Hubei Province

16 Pages Posted: 13 Feb 2020

Wei Li, Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) – Department of Geriatric Psychiatry; Ling Yue, Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) – Department of Geriatric Psychiatry; Lin Sun, Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) – Department of Geriatric Psychiatry; Shifu Xiao, Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) – Department of Geriatric Psychiatry




The ongoing outbreak of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) poses a challenge for China. We speculated that the emigration rate of Wuhan population might have an important impact on the number of confirmed cases and mortality in other areas of Hubei Province.


Based on the official website of health commission of Hubei Province (wjw.hubei.gov.cn), we obtained the trend of pneumonia epidemic with novel coronavirus infection over time in Hubei Province. By analyzing Baidu map migration big data (qianxi.baidu.com),we also got the flow direction of Wuhan population from January 20,2020 to February 7,2020.


Since January 20, 2020, the number of confirmed cases, cured cases and dead cases of novel pneumonia in Hubei Province has been increasing. However, after February 4, 2020, the number of cured cases has exceeded the number of dead cases. The case fatality rate gradually increased from January 20 to January 24, decreased on January 25, reached the peak on January 26, then gradually decreased, and finally stabilized at about 2.8. The results of correlation analysis showed that the average emigration rate in Wuhan was positively correlated with the number of confirmed cases (r=0.899, p<0.001) and the number of fatalities(r=0.851, p<0.001).


China is still facing a huge challenge of novel coronavirus. However, despite the increasing number of confirmed cases, the current cure rate has exceeded the case fatality rate. There is a positive correlation between the emigration rate of Wuhan population and the number of confirmed cases and the mortality rate in Hubei Province, so we still need to strictly control the outward circulation of Wuhan population.


Funding: This work was supported by grants from the China Ministry of Science and Technology (2009BAI77B03), National Natural Science Foundation of China (number 81671402), Clinical research center project of Shanghai Mental Health Center (CRC2017ZD02), the National Key R&D program of China (2017YFC1310501500)and the Cultivation of Multidisciplinary interdisciplinary Project in Shanghai Jiaotong University (YG2019QNA10).

Declaration of Interest: The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Keywords: 2019-nCoV, infectious disease, baidu map, Wuhan, fatality rate

Suggested Citation: Li, Wei and Yue, Ling and Sun, Lin and Xiao, Shifu, Correlation Analysis of the Population Emigration Rate in Wuhan and the Trend of Novel Pneumonia in Hubei Province (2/9/2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3537086

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19.


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Giuseppe Michieli

I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.