Early #Transmissibility #Assessment of a Novel #Coronavirus in #Wuhan, #China (SSRN, abstract)

[Source: SSRN, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

Early Transmissibility Assessment of a Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China

7 Pages Posted: 24 Jan 2020 Last revised: 27 Jan 2020

Maimuna Majumder, Harvard University – Computational Health Informatics Program; Kenneth D. Mandl, Harvard University – Computational Health Informatics Program

Date Written: January 26, 2020



Between December 1, 2019 and January 26, 2020, nearly 3000 cases of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China have been reported. In this short analysis, we combine publicly available cumulative case data from the ongoing outbreak with phenomenological modeling methods to conduct an early transmissibility assessment. Our model suggests that the basic reproduction number associated with the outbreak (at time of writing) may range from 2.0 to 3.1. Though these estimates are preliminary and subject to change, they are consistent with previous findings regarding the transmissibility of the related SARS-Coronavirus and indicate the possibility of epidemic potential.


Keywords: novel coronavirus, Wuhan, China, transmission, emerging infectious diseases

Suggested Citation: Majumder, Maimuna and Mandl, Kenneth D., Early Transmissibility Assessment of a Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China (January 26, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3524675

Keywords: 2019-nCoV.


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Giuseppe Michieli

I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.