#Density-dependence and #persistence of #Morogoro #arenavirus #transmission in a fluctuating population of its reservoir host (J Anim Ecol., abstract)

[Source: US National Library of Medicine, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

J Anim Ecol. 2019 Sep 23. doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.13107. [Epub ahead of print]

Density-dependence and persistence of Morogoro arenavirus transmission in a fluctuating population of its reservoir host.

Mariën J1, Borremans B1,2,3, Verhaeren C1, Kirkpatrick L1, Gryseels S1,4,5, Goüy de Bellocq J6, Günther S7, Sabuni CA8, Massawe AW8, Reijniers J1,9, Leirs H1.

Author information: 1 Evolutionary Ecology Group, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium. 2 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, USA. 3 Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics (I-BIOSTAT), Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium. 4 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA. 5 Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, Rega Institute, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium. 6 Institute of Vertebrate Biology, Research Facility Studenec, The Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic. 7 Bernhard-Nocht-Institute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany. 8 PestManagement Centre, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania. 9 Department of Engineering Management, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.



1.A key aim in wildlife disease ecology is to understand how host and parasite characteristics influence parasite transmission and persistence. Variation in host population density can have strong impacts on transmission and outbreaks, and theory predicts particular transmission-density patterns depending on how parasites are transmitted between individuals. Here, we present the results of a study on the dynamics of Morogoro arenavirus in a population of multimammate mice (Mastomys natalensis). This widespread African rodent, which is also the reservoir host of Lassa arenavirus in West Africa, is known for its strong seasonal density fluctuations driven by food availability.

2.We investigated to what degree virus transmission changes with host population density and how the virus might be able to persist during periods of low host density.

3.A seven-year capture-mark-recapture study was conducted in Tanzania where rodents were trapped monthly and screened for the presence of antibodies against Morogoro virus. Observed seasonal seroprevalence patterns were compared with those generated by mathematical transmission models to test different hypotheses regarding the degree of density-dependence and the role of chronically infected individuals.

4.We observed that Morogoro virus seroprevalence correlates positively with host density with a lag of one to four months. Model results suggest that the observed seasonal seroprevalence dynamics can be best explained by a combination of vertical and horizontal transmission, and that a small number of animals needs to be infected chronically to ensure viral persistence.

5.Transmission dynamics and viral persistence were best explained by the existence of both acutely and chronically infected individuals, and by seasonally changing transmission rates. Due to the presence of chronically infected rodents, rodent control is unlikely to be a feasible approach for eliminating arenaviruses such as Lassa virus from Mastomys populations.

© 2019 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2019 British Ecological Society.

PMID: 31545505 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13107

Keywords: Arenavirus; Wildlife; Rodents; Morogoro virus; Seroprevalence; Tanzania.


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Giuseppe Michieli

I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.