Spatial #diffusion of the 2015-2016 #Zika, #dengue and #chikungunya #epidemics in #Rio de Janeiro Municipality, #Brazil (Epidemiol Infect., abstract)

[Source: US National Library of Medicine, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

Epidemiol Infect. 2019 Jan;147:e237. doi: 10.1017/S0950268819001250.

Spatial diffusion of the 2015-2016 Zika, dengue and chikungunya epidemics in Rio de Janeiro Municipality, Brazil.

Dalvi APR1, Braga JU1.

Author information: 1 Escola Nacional de Saude Publica Sergio Arouca,Fundação Oswaldo Cruz,Rio de Janeiro,Brazil.



Different countries, especially Brazil, that have faced recurrent dengue epidemics for decades and chikungunya epidemics since 2014, have had to restructure their health services to combat a triple epidemic of arboviruses – Zika, dengue and Chikungunya – transmitted by the same vector, mainly Aedes aegypti, in 2015-2016. Several efforts have been made to better understand these three arboviruses. Spatial analysis plays an important role in the knowledge of disease dynamics. The knowledge of the patterns of spatial diffusion of these three arboviruses during an epidemic can contribute to the planning of surveillance actions and control of these diseases. This study aimed to identify the spatial diffusion processes of these viruses in the context of the triple epidemic in 2015-2016 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Two study designs were used: cross-sectional and ecological. Sequential Kernel maps, nearest-neighbour ratios calculated cumulatively over time, Moran global autocorrelation correlograms, and local autocorrelation changes over time were used to identify spatial diffusion patterns. The results suggested an expansion diffusion pattern for the three arboviruses during 2015-2016 in Rio de Janeiro. These findings can be considered for more effective control measures and for new studies on the dynamics of these three arboviruses.

KEYWORDS: Chikungunya virus; Zika virus; dengue virus; spatio temporal analysis

PMID: 31364556 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268819001250

Keywords: Arbovirus; Zika virus; Dengue fever; Chikungunya fever, Brazil.


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Giuseppe Michieli

I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum ( in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.