Effective #control #measures considering spatial heterogeneity to mitigate the 2016–2017 #avian #influenza epidemic in the Republic of #Korea (PLoS One, abstract)

[Source: PLoS One, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]


Effective control measures considering spatial heterogeneity to mitigate the 2016–2017 avian influenza epidemic in the Republic of Korea

Jonggul Lee, Youngsuk Ko, Eunok Jung

Published: June 13, 2019 / DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0218202



During the winter of 2016-2017, an epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) led to high mortality in poultry and put a serious burden on the poultry industry of the Republic of Korea. Effective control measures considering spatial heterogeneity to mitigate the HPAI epidemic is still a challenging issue. Here we develop a spatial-temporal compartmental model that incorporates the culling rate as a function of the reported farms and farm density in each town. The epidemiological and geographical data of two species, chickens and ducks, from the farms in the sixteen towns in Eumseong-gun and Jincheon-gun are used to find the best-fitted parameters of the metapopulation model. The best culling radius to maximize the final size of the susceptible farms and minimize the total number of culled farms is calculated from the model. The local reproductive number using the next generation method is calculated as an indicator of virus transmission in a given area. Simulation results indicate that this parameter is strongly influenced not only by epidemiological factors such as transmissibility and/or susceptibility of poultry species but also by geographical and demographical factors such as the distribution of poultry farms (or density) and connectivity (or distance) between farms. Based on this result, we suggest the best culling radius with respect to the local reproductive number in a targeted area.


Citation: Lee J, Ko Y, Jung E (2019) Effective control measures considering spatial heterogeneity to mitigate the 2016–2017 avian influenza epidemic in the Republic of Korea. PLoS ONE 14(6): e0218202. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0218202

Editor: Daniel Becker, Montana State University, UNITED STATES

Received: February 13, 2019; Accepted: May 28, 2019; Published: June 13, 2019

Copyright: © 2019 Lee et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Data Availability: The data that support the findings of this study are publicly available online at www.mafra.go.kr, www.data.go.kr and www.kosis.kr. The authors confirm that the data set used to reach the conclusions drawn in the manuscript are available in the manuscript and Supporting Information files.

Funding: This work is resulted from the Konkuk University research support program. This paper is supported by the Korea National Research Foundation (NRF) grant funded by the Korean government (MEST) (NRF-2017R1A2B2004651). This paper is also supported by National Institute for Mathematical Sciences (NIMS) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (No. B19610000).

Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Keywords: Avian Influenza; Poultry; S. Korea.


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Giuseppe Michieli

I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.