#Risk modeling the #mortality impact of #antimicrobial #resistance in secondary #pneumococcal #pneumonia infections during the 2009 #influenza #pandemic (Int J Infect Dis., abstract)

[Source: US National Library of Medicine, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

Int J Infect Dis. 2019 May 13. pii: S1201-9712(19)30211-5. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2019.05.005. [Epub ahead of print]

Risk modeling the mortality impact of antimicrobial resistance in secondary pneumococcal pneumonia infections during the 2009 influenza pandemic.

Barnes CE1, MacIntyre CR2.

Author information: 1 School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia. Electronic address: barnes103@hotmail.com. 2 School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; The Kirby Institute, Sydney, Australia. Electronic address: r.macintyre@unsw.edu.au.

 

Abstract

OBJECTIVES:

The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in secondary pneumococcal pneumonia infections on global mortality during the 2009 influenza pandemic, to estimate future pandemic mortality risk and to inform pandemic preparedness.

METHODS:

Risk analysis modeling was conducted using a multivariate risk formula. Literature reviews were conducted to generate global central estimates for each of the parameters of the risk formula in relation to the 2009 influenza pandemic, secondary pneumococcal pneumonia, rates of AMR and pneumococcal vaccine efficacy as a component of pandemic preparedness.

RESULTS:

Global Streptococcus pneumoniae AMR was estimated at 21.8% to 27.6%, and contributed to 1.8% to 2.3% of deaths during the 2009 influenza pandemic. When directly applied to mortality due to multidrug resistance, pneumococcal vaccination could potentially prevent 1,277 to 3,754 deaths and could have reduced mortality from multidrug resistant S. pneumoniae to 1% to 1.2%.

CONCLUSION:

AMR in secondary pneumococcal infections contributed towards a small percentage of the global mortality during the 2009 influenza pandemic. Increased S. pnuemoniae AMR could result in a three- to four-fold rise in mortality due to secondary pneumococcal infections in future influenza pandemics. Pneumococcal vaccination has an important role in preventing pneumococcal co-infections and combating AMR in all populations, and should be considered a key component of influenza pandemic preparedness or early action plans.

Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

KEYWORDS: Streptococcus pneumoniae; antimicrobial resistance; pandemic influenza; secondary pneumococcal pneumonia

PMID: 31096052 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2019.05.005

Keywords: Pandemic Influenza; Streptococcus pneumoniae; Vaccines; Antibiotics; Drugs Resistance.

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gimi69

I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.

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