Spatial #Dynamics of #Chikungunya Virus, #Venezuela, 2014 (Emerg Infect Dis., abstract)

[Source: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

Volume 25, Number 4—April 2019 / Research

Spatial Dynamics of Chikungunya Virus, Venezuela, 2014

Erley Lizarazo1, Maria Vincenti-Gonzalez1, Maria E. Grillet2, Sarah Bethencourt, Oscar Diaz, Noheliz Ojeda, Haydee Ochoa, Maria Auxiliadora Rangel, and Adriana Tami2

Author affiliations: University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands (E. Lizarazo, M. Vincenti-Gonzalez, A. Tami); Universidad Central de Venezuela, Caracas, Venezuela (M.E. Grillet); Universidad de Carabobo, Valencia, Venezuela (S. Bethencourt, A. Tami); Fundación Instituto Carabobeño para la Salud, Carabobo, Venezuela (O. Diaz, N. Ojeda, H. Ochoa, M.A. Rangel)

 

Abstract

Since chikungunya virus emerged in the Caribbean region in late 2013, ≈45 countries have experienced chikungunya outbreaks. We described and quantified the spatial and temporal events after the introduction and propagation of chikungunya into an immunologically naive population from the urban north-central region of Venezuela during 2014. The epidemic curve (n = 810 cases) unraveled within 5 months with a basic reproductive number of 3.7 and a radial spread traveled distance of 9.4 km at a mean velocity of 82.9 m/day. The highest disease diffusion speed occurred during the first 90 days, and space and space–time modeling suggest the epidemic followed a particular geographic pathway with spatiotemporal aggregation. The directionality and heterogeneity of transmission during the first introduction of chikungunya indicated existence of areas of diffusion and elevated risk for disease and highlight the importance of epidemic preparedness. This information will help in managing future threats of new or reemerging arboviruses.

Keywords: Chikungunya fever; Venezuela.

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Giuseppe Michieli

I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.