[Source: US National Library of Medicine, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]
BMC Med. 2018 May 15;16(1):67. doi: 10.1186/s12916-018-1052-4.
Guillain-Barré syndrome risk among individuals infected with Zika virus: a multi-country assessment.
Mier-Y-Teran-Romero L1, Delorey MJ2, Sejvar JJ3, Johansson MA4,5.
Author information: 1 Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico. firstname.lastname@example.org. 2 Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, CO, USA. 3 Division of High-Consequence Pathogens and Pathology, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, CO, USA. 4 Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico. 5 T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Countries with ongoing outbreaks of Zika virus have observed a notable rise in reported cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), with mounting evidence of a causal link between Zika virus infection and the neurological syndrome. However, the risk of GBS following a Zika virus infection is not well characterized. In this work, we used data from 11 locations with publicly available data to estimate the risk of GBS following an infection with Zika virus, as well as the location-specific incidence of infection and the number of suspect GBS cases reported per infection.
We built a mathematical inference framework utilizing data from 11 locations that had reported suspect Zika and GBS cases, two with completed outbreaks prior to 2015 (French Polynesia and Yap) and nine others in the Americas covering partial outbreaks and where transmission was ongoing as of early 2017.
We estimated that 2.0 (95% credible interval 0.5-4.5) reported GBS cases may occur per 10,000 Zika virus infections. The frequency of reported suspect Zika cases varied substantially and was highly uncertain, with a mean of 0.11 (95% credible interval 0.01-0.24) suspect cases reported per infection.
These estimates can help efforts to prepare for the GBS cases that may occur during Zika epidemics and highlight the need to better understand the relationship between infection and the reported incidence of clinical disease.
KEYWORDS: Guillain–Barré syndrome; Zika virus; neurological disorder; vector-borne diseases
PMID: 29759069 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-018-1052-4
Keywords: Zika Virus; GBS; Mathematical Models.