#Epidemiology and Relative #Severity of #Influenza Subtypes in #Singapore in the Post-Pandemic Period from 2009 to 2010 (Clin Infect Dis., abstract)

[Source: US National Library of Medicine, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]

Clin Infect Dis. 2017 Sep 23. doi: 10.1093/cid/cix694. [Epub ahead of print]

Epidemiology and Relative Severity of Influenza Subtypes in Singapore in the Post-Pandemic Period from 2009 to 2010.

Goh EH1, Jiang L1, Hsu JP1,2, Tan LWL1, Lim WY1, Phoon MC3, Leo YS2, Barr IG4, Chow VTK3, Lee VJ1,5, Lin C6, Lin R3,6, Sadarangani SP2, Young B2, Chen MI1,7.

Author information: 1 Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University Health System, National University of Singapore. 2 Department of Infectious Diseases, Institute of Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology, Tan Tock Seng Hospital. 3 Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore. 4 World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, VIDRL, Doherty Institute, University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. 5 Biodefence Centre, Singapore Armed Forces. 6 National Public Health Laboratory, Ministry of Health, Singapore, Singapore. 7 Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Institute of Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology, Tan Tock Seng Hospital.




After 2009, pandemic influenza A(H1N1) [A(H1N1)pdm09] cocirculated with A(H3N2) and B in Singapore.


A cohort of 760 participants contributed demographic data and up to 4 blood samples each from October 2009 to September 2010. We compared epidemiology of the 3 subtypes and investigated evidence for heterotypic immunity through multivariable logistic regression using a generalized estimating equation. To examine age-related differences in severity between subtypes, we used LOESS (locally weighted smoothing) plots of hospitalization to infection ratios and explored birth cohort effects referencing the pandemic years (1957; 1968).


Having more household members aged 5-19 years and frequent public transport use increased risk of infection, while preexisting antibodies against the same subtype (odds ratio [OR], 0.61; P = .002) and previous influenza infection against heterotypic infections (OR, 0.32; P = .045) were protective. A(H1N1)pdm09 severity peaked in those born around 1957, while A(H3N2) severity was least in the youngest individuals and increased until it surpassed A(H1N1)pdm09 in those born in 1952 or earlier. Further analysis showed that severity of A(H1N1)pdm09 was less than that for A(H3N2) in those born in 1956 or earlier (P = .021) and vice versa for those born in 1968 or later (P < .001), with no difference in those born between 1957 and 1967 (P = .632).


Our findings suggest that childhood exposures had long-term impact on immune responses consistent with the theory of antigenic sin. This, plus observations on short-term cross-protection, have implications for vaccination and influenza epidemic and pandemic mitigation strategies.

KEYWORDS: H1N1pdm09; birth cohort effect; cross-protection; seroepidemiology; severity

PMID: 29028950 DOI: 10.1093/cid/cix694

Keywords: Seasonal Influenza; Singapore; H1N1pdm09; H3N2; Original Antigenic Sin.


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Giuseppe Michieli

I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.